Equity markets continued to be kind to investors as we started 2024. Resilient economic growth and reassuring corporate earnings allowed stocks to build upon last year’s gains. Growth-oriented stocks continued to outperform, although market gains were fairly broad. For the first quarter, the S&P 500® Index gained 10.6% to record highs and the Russell 2000® Index advanced 5.2%. Three primary forces seem to be driving markets: the economy, Fed policy and artificial intelligence (AI).

Equity markets generated surprisingly robust returns in 2023. The S&P 500® Index gained 26.3% for the year and the Russell 2000® Index returned 16.9%. Much of the gains were fueled by a feverish late-year rally. For the fourth quarter alone, the S&P and Russell returned 11.7% and 14.0%, respectively. As you may recall, we came into 2023 with rampant negativity and widespread calls for a recession. While there were hurdles to surmount along the way, markets largely defied the odds and generated very impressive results.

Stocks seemed to run out of gas in the third quarter. The S&P 500® Index and Russell 2000® Index lost 3.3% and 5.1%, respectively. Most of the losses were concentrated in September, which historically is the worst month of the year for stocks. It wasn’t surprising to see equity markets stall a bit, especially after a surprising first half rally. Even large cap technology stalwarts cooled off as the artificial intelligence (AI) craze seemed to fade. Year-to-date, the S&P and Russell finished the period up 13.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

The year is halfway over and equity returns have probably surprised many investors. We came into 2023 with predictions for a recession and rampant negativity; yet, the major indices have managed to post impressive gains so far. For the second quarter, the S&P 500® Index and Russell 2000® Index advanced 8.7% and 5.2%, respectively, bringing year-to-date gains to 16.9% and 8.1%. Even more impressive, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100® Index is up 39.4% year-to-date, the best start to a year for the index since 1985.

Stocks managed to perform surprisingly well in the first quarter despite the double whammy of hawkish talk from the Fed and turbulence in the banking system. However, it wasn’t always smooth sailing. In early February, the S&P 500® Index was up 9% and looked to be on its way to a swift recovery from 2022 losses. However, this proved too good to be true, as recession fears ultimately resurfaced and prompted stocks to decline from early February to mid-March. After a late-March rally, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000® Index finished the quarter up 7.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Growth-oriented areas like technology (up 21.8%) dramatically outperformed more cyclical sectors such as energy (down 4.7%) and financials (down 5.6%) as recession risks grew.

We doubt many investors will be very upset about waving goodbye to 2022. Indeed, it was a tough year for stocks as evidenced by declines of 18.1% and 20.4%, respectively, for the S&P 500® Index and Russell 2000® Index. The NASDAQ® Composite was even worse with a 32.5% swoon, and the top four technology companies (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon) lost roughly $3 trillion of value. Of note, this was the worst year for the major indices since 2008. Was all this to be expected after an impressive multi-year run? Some moderation certainly seemed warranted, but it was painful nonetheless.

Market action was wild in the third quarter, which turned out to be a tale of two halves. We saw an impressive rally from July through mid-August that coincided with hopes of the Federal Reserve backing off restrictive monetary policy. Then, we witnessed a sharp reversal as discouraging inflation data prompted the Fed to become even more resolute in its battle against rising prices. Ultimately, stocks declined for the quarter and returned to their June lows. The S&P 500® Index finished the period down 4.9% and the Russell 2000® Index declined 2.2%. Year-to-date, the S&P and Russell finished September down 23.9% and 25.1%, respectively.

Stocks were under significant pressure in the second quarter and officially entered bear market territory. The S&P 500® Index and Russell 2000® Index declined 16.1% and 17.2%, respectively, during the quarter and finished the period down 20.0% and 23.4% year-to-date. This is the S&P’s worst first half since 1970. Market conditions are clearly very different from a year or two ago, when risk taking was rampant and asset values were propped up by rock-bottom interest rates and aggressive economic stimulus spawned by the pandemic. Now, we are on the back side of said stimulus and dealing with the challenging cocktail of rampant inflation, higher interest rates and slowing growth.